{"F": {"ts_code": "300556.SZ", "name": "丝路视觉", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20161104", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.62, "pe_ttm": 98.3173, "pb": 5.1537, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 202041.5286, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.0, 32.1, 29.0, 29.9, -15.7, 7.7], "rev_series": [10.0, 13.9, 12.9, 14.3, 5.9, 6.1], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 0.5, 0.2, -3.6, -0.6], "roe_series": [10.8, 10.3, 5.5, 2.5, -47.3, -12.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.0, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 4.7, "ocf_yield": 5.3, "gm_median": 29.0, "gm_std": 18.4, "gm_stab": 0.37, "gm_chg_2022": -6.0, "npm_median": 1.5, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.8, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.87, "capex_dep": 2.14, "interest_debt": 3.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 72.7, "debt_mv": 17.6, "payout": 18.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -22.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 33.2, "np_yoy": 101.3, "np_vol": 675.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["数字化展览展示综合业务", 24.0], ["数字化展览展示综合业务：展览展示场景构建", 15.0], ["场景构建服务", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.3, "ret_prev2_year": -48.3, "ret_ytd": -12.5, "ret_pivot": 5.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": -20.5, "ret_120": -13.3, "ret_250": -25.6, "mdd_250": -38.2, "vol_250": 40.3, "pos_52w": 73.3}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 31, "hard": 1, "bondness": 29}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 98 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 73%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.7%(经营现金流/市值 5.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.0%,稳定度 37%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 2.14 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 98.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -20% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "丝路视觉:PE 比行业中位高 15.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 19.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点。"]}}