{"F": {"ts_code": "300554.SZ", "name": "三超新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "磨具磨料", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.2, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.9456, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 242128.592, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.8, 28.8, 23.9, 29.4, 17.9, 21.8], "rev_series": [2.6, 2.5, 4.1, 4.8, 3.5, 2.3], "np_series": [0.2, -0.8, 0.1, 0.3, -1.4, -1.6], "roe_series": [3.7, -14.0, 2.2, 3.7, -19.2, -27.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.5, "np_ttm": -1.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 23.9, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -10.9, "npm_median": -30.2, "roe_median": -14.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.9, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.95, "capex_dep": 0.84, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 66.2, "debt_ratio": 27.3, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": 33.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -17.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 19.5, "np_yoy": 26.9, "np_vol": 311.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["电镀金刚线", 23.0], ["金刚石砂轮", 15.0], ["其他主营业务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.9, "ret_prev2_year": -17.9, "ret_ytd": -8.6, "ret_pivot": 18.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.3, "ret_60": -27.3, "ret_120": -17.1, "ret_250": -16.2, "mdd_250": -45.8, "vol_250": 49.2, "pos_52w": 66.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 61, "bondness": 47}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 27%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -27% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "三超新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.1个百分点。"]}}