{"F": {"ts_code": "300551.SZ", "name": "古鳌科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20161018", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.36, "pe_ttm": 24.9844, "pb": 6.5526, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 420317.7444, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.9, 39.1, 76.0, 76.5, 51.5, 2.8], "rev_series": [2.9, 1.7, 5.3, 5.7, 3.0, 1.5], "np_series": [0.2, 0.2, -0.6, -0.8, -3.5, -2.6], "roe_series": [4.0, 2.5, -7.2, -8.1, -46.1, -56.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.2, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -1.7, "gm_median": 51.5, "gm_std": 27.3, "gm_stab": 0.47, "gm_chg_2022": 34.1, "npm_median": -13.7, "roe_median": -8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.5, "fix_assets": 0.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 6.55, "capex_dep": 0.67, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 15.2, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -33.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -47.2, "np_yoy": 379.2, "np_vol": 205.6, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["金融机具设备及服务", 41.0], ["信息技术产品系列", 9.0], ["其他收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.9, "ret_prev2_year": -42.7, "ret_ytd": -25.7, "ret_pivot": 62.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 23.7, "ret_60": 22.0, "ret_120": -33.8, "ret_250": -1.8, "mdd_250": -60.7, "vol_250": 57.1, "pos_52w": 59.6}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 53, "hard": 4, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 25 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 15%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 51.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.5%,稳定度 47%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 34.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 0.67 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.0 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 24% / 22% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "古鳌科技:PE 比行业中位低 26.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.2个百分点。"]}}