{"F": {"ts_code": "300548.SZ", "name": "长芯博创", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20161012", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 193.78, "pe_ttm": 117.0489, "pb": 27.3351, "dv_ttm": 0.1497, "total_mv": 5712727.4144, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.7, 22.9, 18.7, 19.4, 27.3, 40.6], "rev_series": [7.8, 11.5, 14.7, 16.8, 17.5, 25.3], "np_series": [0.9, 1.6, 1.9, 0.8, 0.7, 3.3], "roe_series": [13.2, 14.5, 12.1, 4.9, 4.2, 18.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.2, "np_ttm": 4.9, "ocf_ttm": 7.3, "fcf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 22.9, "gm_std": 8.0, "gm_stab": 0.65, "gm_chg_2022": -7.0, "npm_median": 13.2, "roe_median": 12.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.3, "fix_assets": 6.9, "goodwill_ratio": 4.6, "pb_calc": 27.34, "capex_dep": 3.15, "interest_debt": 2.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 34.2, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 26.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.0, "np_cagr3": 19.9, "rev_yoy": 40.7, "np_yoy": 91.1, "np_vol": 150.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["数据通信、消费及工业互联市场", 88.0], ["电信市场", 12.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 207.8, "ret_prev2_year": 73.6, "ret_ytd": 36.7, "ret_pivot": 1043.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.5, "ret_60": -13.8, "ret_120": 22.2, "ret_250": 66.1, "mdd_250": -57.3, "vol_250": 91.7, "pos_52w": 65.1}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 38, "hard": 24, "bondness": 11}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 117.0 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 65%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 3.15 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 117.0 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 66%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 92%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / -14% / 22%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "长芯博创:PE 比行业中位高 32.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点。"]}}