{"F": {"ts_code": "300539.SZ", "name": "横河精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20160830", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.74, "pe_ttm": 103.6457, "pb": 4.1356, "dv_ttm": 1.071, "total_mv": 475610.4644, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.6, 18.0, 20.6, 20.9, 22.1, 20.5], "rev_series": [5.8, 7.0, 6.7, 6.8, 7.5, 9.6], "np_series": [0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5], "roe_series": [2.9, 4.4, 5.4, 6.4, 6.9, 6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.5, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 20.6, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.2, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.14, "capex_dep": 3.11, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 31.0, "debt_mv": 5.0, "payout": 79.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.0, "np_cagr3": 23.6, "rev_yoy": -3.2, "np_yoy": -25.4, "np_vol": 13.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["智能家电精密零组件", 21.0], ["智能家电精密零件组", 21.0], ["汽车轻量化内饰件", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 306.3, "ret_prev2_year": -14.2, "ret_ytd": -57.6, "ret_pivot": 140.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.0, "ret_60": -20.1, "ret_120": -38.2, "ret_250": -43.1, "mdd_250": -70.5, "vol_250": 70.7, "pos_52w": 31.8}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 51, "hard": 32, "bondness": 46}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 103.6 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.6%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.6%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 3.11 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 103.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -70%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 32%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -20% / -38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "横河精密:PE 比行业中位高 62.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.7个百分点。"]}}