{"F": {"ts_code": "300535.SZ", "name": "达威股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20160812", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.35, "pe_ttm": 135.484, "pb": 1.8394, "dv_ttm": 0.6422, "total_mv": 174977.476, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.2, 36.9, 28.3, 31.7, 35.6, 39.8], "rev_series": [4.7, 6.3, 5.1, 7.2, 7.5, 7.1], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, -0.0, 0.3, -0.1, 0.4], "roe_series": [7.2, 7.7, -0.2, 3.1, -1.2, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.2, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -3.7, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 35.6, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -9.9, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.5, "fix_assets": 7.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.84, "capex_dep": 2.21, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 35.6, "debt_mv": 19.8, "payout": 28.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.4, "np_yoy": -160.9, "np_vol": 672.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["化学品", 47.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.4, "ret_prev2_year": -25.4, "ret_ytd": -7.9, "ret_pivot": 46.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.4, "ret_60": 9.3, "ret_120": -24.5, "ret_250": -24.1, "mdd_250": -46.9, "vol_250": 39.7, "pos_52w": 71.6}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 53, "hard": 73, "bondness": 33}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 135 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 36%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 46%、毛利率 35.6% 两条都占,但所在行业(基础化工)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 2.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 135.5 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 9% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "达威股份:PE 比行业中位高 99.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.0个百分点。"]}}