{"F": {"ts_code": "300533.SZ", "name": "冰川网络", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "游戏Ⅱ", "sw3": "游戏Ⅲ", "ind": "游戏Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20160818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.61, "pe_ttm": 40.9893, "pb": 4.0171, "dv_ttm": 9.1516, "total_mv": 512393.2548, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [92.1, 90.7, 94.0, 95.0, 93.3, 93.3], "rev_series": [3.9, 5.1, 20.5, 27.8, 27.9, 25.5], "np_series": [0.9, -0.6, 1.3, 2.7, -2.5, 4.8], "roe_series": [5.0, -3.7, 7.5, 15.9, -17.0, 34.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.9, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_yield": 5.8, "ocf_yield": 6.5, "gm_median": 93.3, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 1.9, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.4, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.02, "capex_dep": 6.64, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 50.9, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 99.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 7.7, "np_cagr3": 55.4, "rev_yoy": -5.3, "np_yoy": -106.8, "np_vol": 216.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["移动终端游戏", 32.0], ["移动游戏充值收入", 32.0], ["客户端游戏充值收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 89.9, "ret_prev2_year": -29.5, "ret_ytd": -35.2, "ret_pivot": 90.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.4, "ret_60": 5.4, "ret_120": -29.2, "ret_250": -44.7, "mdd_250": -58.5, "vol_250": 54.0, "pos_52w": 50.1}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 90, "hard": 2, "bondness": 78}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["现金流红利", "亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 93.3%,自由现金流/市值 5.8%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 93.3%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.8%(经营现金流/市值 6.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 93.3%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 6.64 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.0 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 5% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「游戏Ⅱ」26 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 60.8% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 43%。", "冰川网络:PE 比行业中位高 16.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 32.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点。"]}}