{"F": {"ts_code": "300531.SZ", "name": "优博讯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20160809", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.06, "pe_ttm": 40.8764, "pb": 3.6752, "dv_ttm": 0.4626, "total_mv": 547760.6034, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.1, 29.4, 27.5, 27.5, 24.2, 25.9], "rev_series": [11.6, 14.2, 14.1, 12.7, 12.2, 15.4], "np_series": [1.2, 1.5, 1.6, -1.7, -1.5, 0.8], "roe_series": [8.7, 9.7, 9.2, -10.2, -10.4, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.8, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_ttm": -3.4, "fcf_yield": -6.2, "ocf_yield": -5.1, "gm_median": 27.5, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.5, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 3.99, "capex_dep": 5.41, "interest_debt": 7.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 43.9, "debt_mv": 13.6, "payout": 31.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.9, "np_cagr3": -18.9, "rev_yoy": 32.9, "np_yoy": 114.3, "np_vol": 116.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 42.6, "fwd_pe2": 30.5, "fwd_g1": -4.0, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 1.06, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["智能终端", 26.0], ["其他主营业务", 9.0], ["其他", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.0, "ret_prev2_year": -8.8, "ret_ytd": -5.0, "ret_pivot": 52.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": 14.3, "ret_120": -5.7, "ret_250": -17.7, "mdd_250": -34.5, "vol_250": 46.5, "pos_52w": 76.0}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 50, "hard": 10, "bondness": 42}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 41 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 44%,有息负债 8 亿,经营现金流/市值 -5.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.2%(经营现金流/市值 -5.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 5.41 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 40.9 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 14% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "优博讯:PE 比行业中位低 10.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点。"]}}