{"F": {"ts_code": "300528.SZ", "name": "幸福蓝海", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "影视院线", "sw3": "院线", "ind": "影视院线", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20160808", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.94, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 15.1784, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 519415.6914, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-7.9, 14.9, -15.6, 15.3, 3.1, 17.4], "rev_series": [5.7, 9.5, 6.3, 11.0, 6.5, 8.3], "np_series": [-3.9, -1.7, -3.4, -0.2, -1.9, -1.4], "roe_series": [-20.3, -10.4, -36.6, -3.0, -30.6, -31.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.9, "np_ttm": -2.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 14.9, "gm_std": 12.4, "gm_stab": 0.17, "gm_chg_2022": -7.7, "npm_median": -17.2, "roe_median": -30.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.8, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 15.18, "capex_dep": 0.9, "interest_debt": 8.4, "debt_ebitda": 43.7, "debt_ratio": 79.3, "debt_mv": 16.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 9.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -33.9, "np_yoy": -629.6, "np_vol": 324.6, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电影及衍生", 31.0], ["院线发行及放映收入", 27.0], ["电影及衍生：院线发行及放映收入", 27.0], ["其他业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 139.0, "ret_prev2_year": -18.2, "ret_ytd": -32.9, "ret_pivot": 116.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.1, "ret_60": 1.8, "ret_120": -16.2, "ret_250": -21.7, "mdd_250": -60.8, "vol_250": 80.6, "pos_52w": 43.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 17, "hard": 14, "bondness": 25}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 79%,有息负债 8 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%,稳定度 17%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.90 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 43%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 2% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「影视院线」19 家中位:PE 84.8 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 22.8% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 40%。", "幸福蓝海:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点。"]}}