{"F": {"ts_code": "300525.SZ", "name": "博思软件", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20160726", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.34, "pe_ttm": 37.4343, "pb": 2.5839, "dv_ttm": 0.7194, "total_mv": 626864.0904, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [63.6, 65.1, 61.6, 66.7, 65.8, 63.7], "rev_series": [11.4, 15.6, 19.2, 20.4, 21.4, 20.0], "np_series": [1.6, 2.3, 2.5, 3.3, 3.0, 1.7], "roe_series": [12.5, 15.3, 13.7, 13.9, 11.6, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.5, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 65.1, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 16.2, "roe_median": 13.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.1, "fix_assets": 7.6, "goodwill_ratio": 8.5, "pb_calc": 2.58, "capex_dep": 2.68, "interest_debt": 6.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 30.5, "debt_mv": 10.3, "payout": 39.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.5, "np_cagr3": -11.9, "rev_yoy": -7.8, "np_yoy": -15.0, "np_vol": 29.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["技术服务", 45.0], ["软件开发与销售", 4.0], ["合计特别调整", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.8, "ret_prev2_year": 5.8, "ret_ytd": -40.6, "ret_pivot": -29.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.5, "ret_60": -8.5, "ret_120": -26.1, "ret_250": -48.8, "mdd_250": -55.3, "vol_250": 39.0, "pos_52w": 51.6}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 73, "hard": 31, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 37.4 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 65.1%、固定资产占比 19%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 65.1%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 65.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 2.68 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -49%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -8% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "博思软件:PE 比行业中位低 45.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.3个百分点。"]}}