{"F": {"ts_code": "300517.SZ", "name": "海波重科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "专业工程", "sw3": "钢结构", "ind": "专业工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20160719", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.12, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1968, "dv_ttm": 0.8968, "total_mv": 222864.26, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.8, 24.2, 25.3, 21.5, 14.9, 12.7], "rev_series": [8.6, 11.2, 6.4, 4.2, 4.2, 2.3], "np_series": [0.5, 0.9, 0.5, 0.1, 0.2, 0.0], "roe_series": [6.6, 10.3, 5.3, 0.6, 2.2, 0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.6, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 9.0, "ocf_yield": 9.0, "gm_median": 21.5, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": 7.4, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.9, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.15, "capex_dep": 0.0, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 27.6, "debt_mv": 8.5, "payout": 550.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -28.4, "np_cagr3": -67.5, "rev_yoy": -48.5, "np_yoy": -325.6, "np_vol": 140.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["钢结构工程", 33.0], ["桥梁钢结构工程", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.5, "ret_prev2_year": -41.1, "ret_ytd": 1.5, "ret_pivot": 50.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.2, "ret_60": 8.2, "ret_120": -8.9, "ret_250": -9.2, "mdd_250": -38.8, "vol_250": 43.8, "pos_52w": 83.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 17, "bondness": 63}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 28%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 9.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.0%(经营现金流/市值 9.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.5%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / 8% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业工程」39 家中位:PE 40.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 13.6% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 38%。", "海波重科:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点。"]}}