{"F": {"ts_code": "300515.SZ", "name": "三德科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20160608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.83, "pe_ttm": 15.5181, "pb": 3.4691, "dv_ttm": 2.4655, "total_mv": 325709.3735, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [53.8, 57.6, 59.0, 58.8, 53.8, 54.5], "rev_series": [3.2, 3.8, 3.9, 4.6, 5.8, 6.6], "np_series": [0.7, 0.9, 0.9, 0.5, 1.4, 1.8], "roe_series": [13.4, 14.4, 13.7, 7.4, 18.6, 21.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.1, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 6.9, "ocf_yield": 6.9, "gm_median": 57.6, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 5.2, "npm_median": 24.7, "roe_median": 14.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.6, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.47, "capex_dep": 0.1, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 33.4, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 43.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.8, "np_cagr3": 25.8, "rev_yoy": 19.6, "np_yoy": 42.8, "np_vol": 69.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能装备业务", 29.0], ["无人化智能装备业务", 29.0], ["分析仪器产品", 22.0], ["运维等衍生技术服务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 71.8, "ret_prev2_year": 4.8, "ret_ytd": -17.8, "ret_pivot": 91.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.8, "ret_60": 9.1, "ret_120": -16.0, "ret_250": -27.7, "mdd_250": -43.7, "vol_250": 41.0, "pos_52w": 72.1}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 74, "hard": 22, "bondness": 34}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 57.6%,自由现金流/市值 6.9%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 57.6%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.9%(经营现金流/市值 6.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 57.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.10 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.5 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 9% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "三德科技:PE 比行业中位低 35.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 29.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.2个百分点。"]}}