{"F": {"ts_code": "300514.SZ", "name": "友讯达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电工仪器仪表", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170426", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.24, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9803, "dv_ttm": 0.9766, "total_mv": 204800.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.3, 27.3, 30.7, 36.8, 41.6, 36.9], "rev_series": [6.6, 8.7, 10.2, 11.0, 10.1, 8.0], "np_series": [0.3, 0.6, 1.0, 1.9, 2.0, 0.7], "roe_series": [5.8, 9.3, 14.5, 23.9, 20.6, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.7, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 6.1, "ocf_yield": 7.9, "gm_median": 36.8, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 3.4, "npm_median": 9.7, "roe_median": 14.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.8, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.98, "capex_dep": 1.89, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 35.7, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.0, "np_cagr3": -10.9, "rev_yoy": -7.2, "np_yoy": -130.5, "np_vol": 58.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["配网类", 12.0], ["配网", 12.0], ["无线网络类", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.6, "ret_prev2_year": -10.6, "ret_ytd": -21.9, "ret_pivot": -8.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.5, "ret_60": 2.5, "ret_120": -29.9, "ret_250": -28.3, "mdd_250": -44.9, "vol_250": 33.2, "pos_52w": 68.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 59, "hard": 20, "bondness": 36}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 为负(亏损),估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.8%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.1%(经营现金流/市值 7.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.8%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.89 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 2% / -30%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "友讯达:PE ;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点。"]}}