{"F": {"ts_code": "300512.SZ", "name": "中亚股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "印刷包装机械", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20160526", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.43, "pe_ttm": 103.7511, "pb": 1.8512, "dv_ttm": 0.4018, "total_mv": 304063.3882, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.6, 34.1, 36.6, 32.5, 26.8, 22.4], "rev_series": [6.6, 10.6, 9.3, 10.2, 10.2, 11.6], "np_series": [0.4, 1.3, 0.9, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [3.1, 9.0, 6.0, 2.6, 1.6, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.7, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 5.9, "gm_median": 32.5, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": 7.9, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.6, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 1.85, "capex_dep": 1.57, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 41.9, "debt_mv": 3.2, "payout": 85.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.8, "np_cagr3": -33.9, "rev_yoy": 20.6, "np_yoy": 7.7, "np_vol": 93.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智能包装设备", 30.0], ["塑料包装制品", 12.0], ["配件及其他", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.2, "ret_prev2_year": -18.1, "ret_ytd": -21.8, "ret_pivot": 32.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": 0.8, "ret_120": -24.6, "ret_250": -17.0, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 45.6, "pos_52w": 66.2}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 57, "hard": 22, "bondness": 48}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 103.8 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 32.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.5%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 103.8 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 1% / -25%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "中亚股份:PE 比行业中位高 61.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.4个百分点。"]}}