{"F": {"ts_code": "300511.SZ", "name": "雪榕生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "食用菌", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20160504", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.47, "pe_ttm": 23.3383, "pb": 2.1439, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 350543.309, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.8, 5.3, 10.7, 8.4, 3.6, 13.6], "rev_series": [22.0, 20.6, 23.2, 25.7, 21.6, 19.9], "np_series": [2.5, -3.1, -2.9, -1.9, -6.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [12.3, -15.8, -16.8, -11.4, -49.5, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.5, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 5.0, "fcf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_yield": 8.7, "ocf_yield": 14.2, "gm_median": 8.4, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.57, "gm_chg_2022": -11.1, "npm_median": -16.1, "roe_median": -15.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 72.9, "fix_assets": 25.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.14, "capex_dep": 0.6, "interest_debt": 12.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 56.5, "debt_mv": 35.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -5.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 46.2, "np_yoy": 117.4, "np_vol": 139.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["食用菌", 33.0], ["金针菇", 26.0], ["真姬菇", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 79.8, "ret_prev2_year": -35.1, "ret_ytd": -12.3, "ret_pivot": 87.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.8, "ret_60": -2.3, "ret_120": -24.6, "ret_250": -19.6, "mdd_250": -42.1, "vol_250": 45.2, "pos_52w": 66.4}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 28, "hard": 100, "bondness": 27}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 73%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 73%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 57%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.7%(经营现金流/市值 14.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 57%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 73%,资本开支/折旧 0.60 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.3 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -2% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "雪榕生物:PE 比行业中位低 48.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 56.1个百分点。"]}}