{"F": {"ts_code": "300505.SZ", "name": "川金诺", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "磷肥及磷化工", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20160315", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.43, "pe_ttm": 14.0315, "pb": 1.9202, "dv_ttm": 1.9579, "total_mv": 561554.3025, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.4, 20.6, 20.8, 2.0, 13.3, 18.0], "rev_series": [10.5, 15.4, 25.2, 27.1, 32.1, 40.7], "np_series": [0.4, 1.9, 3.5, -0.9, 1.8, 4.5], "roe_series": [4.2, 14.8, 20.9, -4.3, 7.1, 16.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.4, "np_ttm": 4.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_ttm": -4.6, "fcf_yield": -8.1, "ocf_yield": -1.6, "gm_median": 18.0, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.61, "gm_chg_2022": 10.4, "npm_median": 11.7, "roe_median": 14.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.3, "fix_assets": 15.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.92, "capex_dep": 2.66, "interest_debt": 12.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 36.0, "debt_mv": 22.3, "payout": 35.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 17.4, "np_cagr3": 9.4, "rev_yoy": 21.1, "np_yoy": -30.2, "np_vol": 169.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 64.0, "earn_yield": 7.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["磷酸", 25.0], ["饲料级磷酸盐", 17.0], ["磷肥", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.5, "ret_prev2_year": -14.1, "ret_ytd": -7.1, "ret_pivot": 104.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.6, "ret_60": -9.5, "ret_120": -46.9, "ret_250": -3.2, "mdd_250": -57.4, "vol_250": 63.9, "pos_52w": 53.1}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 42, "hard": 52, "bondness": 32}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 61%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 61%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 2.66 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.0 倍 粗算,约 64%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -10% / -47%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "川金诺:PE 比行业中位低 6.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点。"]}}