{"F": {"ts_code": "300503.SZ", "name": "昊志机电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20160309", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 64.19, "pe_ttm": 69.1956, "pb": 12.5715, "dv_ttm": 0.1546, "total_mv": 1994311.4072, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.0, 44.8, 36.2, 32.4, 34.5, 38.1], "rev_series": [8.7, 11.4, 9.6, 10.0, 13.1, 15.9], "np_series": [0.7, 1.4, 0.2, -1.9, 0.8, 1.2], "roe_series": [8.1, 12.5, 1.8, -16.3, 7.2, 9.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.6, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 36.2, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -8.8, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.9, "fix_assets": 10.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 12.57, "capex_dep": 2.97, "interest_debt": 12.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 58.8, "debt_mv": 6.3, "payout": 22.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 18.2, "np_cagr3": 73.2, "rev_yoy": 65.9, "np_yoy": 266.6, "np_vol": 403.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 48.7, "fwd_pe2": 32.1, "fwd_g1": 42.0, "fwd_g2": 52.0, "peg": 0.94, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["主轴类产品", 38.0], ["主轴", 38.0], ["转台、直线电机等功能部件", 8.0], ["转台、直线电机、减速器等功能部件", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 239.0, "ret_prev2_year": 1.9, "ret_ytd": 0.9, "ret_pivot": 436.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.8, "ret_60": -19.6, "ret_120": 33.7, "ret_250": 92.0, "mdd_250": -48.9, "vol_250": 81.2, "pos_52w": 57.8}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 53, "hard": 45, "bondness": 17}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 69.2 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.2%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.2%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.2%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.97 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 69.2 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 92%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -20% / 34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "昊志机电:PE 比行业中位高 18.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点。"]}}