{"F": {"ts_code": "300498.SZ", "name": "温氏股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "生猪养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20151102", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.36, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.9188, "dv_ttm": 3.2479, "total_mv": 10220435.4048, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.6, -8.3, 15.5, 0.8, 17.3, 11.2], "rev_series": [749.2, 649.5, 837.1, 899.0, 1048.6, 1038.2], "np_series": [74.3, -134.0, 52.9, -63.9, 92.3, 52.7], "roe_series": [16.3, -34.3, 14.7, -17.6, 24.9, 12.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1007.2, "np_ttm": -25.7, "ocf_ttm": 57.6, "fcf_ttm": -59.1, "fcf_yield": -5.8, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 11.2, "gm_std": 9.7, "gm_stab": 0.14, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 5.3, "roe_median": 12.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.5, "fix_assets": 388.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.85, "capex_dep": 2.39, "interest_debt": 286.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.8, "debt_ratio": 58.9, "debt_mv": 28.1, "payout": 44.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 7.4, "np_cagr3": -0.1, "rev_yoy": -6.2, "np_yoy": -225.7, "np_vol": 201.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 26, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 9.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["肉猪类养殖", 22.0], ["猪肉类养殖", 22.0], ["肉鸡类养殖", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.5, "ret_prev2_year": -17.3, "ret_ytd": -7.9, "ret_pivot": 4.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.3, "ret_60": 21.3, "ret_120": -10.9, "ret_250": -11.9, "mdd_250": -40.1, "vol_250": 27.6, "pos_52w": 78.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 15, "hard": 66, "bondness": 62}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利", "亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 14%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 14%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 2.39 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 21% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "温氏股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点。"]}}