{"F": {"ts_code": "300497.SZ", "name": "富祥股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "原料药", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20151222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.28, "pe_ttm": 76.4308, "pb": 4.1653, "dv_ttm": 0.2735, "total_mv": 984650.372, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.4, 30.5, 18.0, 10.6, 9.7, 16.7], "rev_series": [14.9, 14.3, 16.5, 16.1, 11.8, 11.8], "np_series": [3.2, 0.5, -1.4, -2.0, -2.7, -0.6], "roe_series": [14.2, 1.7, -5.1, -7.8, -11.7, -2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.6, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 16.7, "gm_std": 7.5, "gm_stab": 0.55, "gm_chg_2022": -22.4, "npm_median": -10.0, "roe_median": -5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.6, "fix_assets": 22.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.17, "capex_dep": 0.86, "interest_debt": 15.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 49.2, "debt_mv": 16.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -10.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 72.6, "np_yoy": 2660.3, "np_vol": 157.4, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 15.2, "fwd_pe2": 12.5, "fwd_g1": 402.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锂离子电池材料", 25.0], ["电解液添加剂", 25.0], ["锂离子电池材料：锂电池电解液添加剂", 25.0], ["中间体", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 81.7, "ret_prev2_year": -11.0, "ret_ytd": 21.4, "ret_pivot": 130.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.8, "ret_60": 20.3, "ret_120": 17.5, "ret_250": 68.5, "mdd_250": -34.1, "vol_250": 65.9, "pos_52w": 78.5}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 31, "hard": 76, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -22.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 55%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 55%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -22.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 0.86 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 76.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 68%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 20% / 18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "富祥股份:PE 比行业中位高 38.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 35.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.8个百分点。"]}}