{"F": {"ts_code": "300496.SZ", "name": "中科创达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20151210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 59.05, "pe_ttm": 50.7472, "pb": 2.5773, "dv_ttm": 0.3119, "total_mv": 2726439.4755, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.2, 39.4, 39.3, 36.9, 34.3, 31.7], "rev_series": [26.3, 41.3, 54.5, 52.4, 53.8, 77.8], "np_series": [4.4, 6.5, 7.7, 4.7, 4.1, 4.5], "roe_series": [14.2, 13.6, 10.8, 5.0, 4.2, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 87.8, "np_ttm": 5.4, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": -8.6, "fcf_yield": -3.2, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 36.9, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 7.5, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.6, "fix_assets": 14.3, "goodwill_ratio": 3.9, "pb_calc": 2.58, "capex_dep": 16.93, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 25.8, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 20.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.6, "np_cagr3": -16.3, "rev_yoy": 30.5, "np_yoy": 55.0, "np_vol": 28.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 43.1, "fwd_pe2": 34.3, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 1.66, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["商品销售及其他", 16.0], ["商品销售", 16.0], ["软件开发", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.5, "ret_prev2_year": -25.3, "ret_ytd": -12.3, "ret_pivot": 64.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.5, "ret_60": -0.6, "ret_120": -11.6, "ret_250": -11.4, "mdd_250": -36.7, "vol_250": 45.5, "pos_52w": 69.6}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 54, "hard": 15, "bondness": 17}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 50.7 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.9%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.9%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 16.93 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.7 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -1% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "中科创达:PE 比行业中位低 33.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点。"]}}