{"F": {"ts_code": "300492.SZ", "name": "华图山鼎", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "教育", "sw3": "培训教育", "ind": "教育", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20151223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.38, "pe_ttm": 111.3855, "pb": 32.7645, "dv_ttm": 1.7571, "total_mv": 671196.028, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.8, 41.1, 35.6, 21.5, 53.5, 59.4], "rev_series": [1.3, 1.1, 1.1, 2.5, 28.3, 32.0], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, 0.1, -0.9, 0.5, 2.4], "roe_series": [4.9, 4.4, 3.6, -35.8, 21.3, 114.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.2, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 41.1, "gm_std": 13.4, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": 2.7, "npm_median": 7.5, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.6, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 32.76, "capex_dep": 5.22, "interest_debt": 7.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 91.2, "debt_mv": 11.5, "payout": 57.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 210.5, "np_cagr3": 180.3, "rev_yoy": -10.5, "np_yoy": -84.7, "np_vol": 445.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 13.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.0, "fwd_g1": 752.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 0.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["非学历培训", 49.0], ["建筑设计", 0.0], ["建筑工程设计服务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.9, "ret_prev2_year": -14.2, "ret_ytd": -54.0, "ret_pivot": -24.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.3, "ret_60": -4.9, "ret_120": -48.1, "ret_250": -45.6, "mdd_250": -68.4, "vol_250": 50.9, "pos_52w": 37.0}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 54, "hard": 7, "bondness": 37}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 111.4 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 13.1 倍,次年 10.0 倍,PEG 0.42。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 41.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.1%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 5.22 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 111.4 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -68%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 37%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -5% / -48%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「教育」17 家中位:PE 96.5 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 43.0% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 49%。", "华图山鼎:PE 比行业中位高 14.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点。"]}}