{"F": {"ts_code": "300491.SZ", "name": "通合科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电源设备Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20151231", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.27, "pe_ttm": 229.4687, "pb": 4.8833, "dv_ttm": 0.2378, "total_mv": 591097.4436, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.5, 37.3, 30.8, 33.2, 27.2, 24.4], "rev_series": [3.2, 4.2, 6.4, 10.1, 12.1, 15.6], "np_series": [0.4, 0.3, 0.4, 1.0, 0.2, 0.4], "roe_series": [6.1, 3.9, 4.5, 9.6, 2.1, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.6, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 30.8, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -12.7, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.2, "fix_assets": 5.3, "goodwill_ratio": 4.7, "pb_calc": 4.88, "capex_dep": 4.96, "interest_debt": 8.6, "debt_ebitda": 11.4, "debt_ratio": 62.7, "debt_mv": 14.5, "payout": 34.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 34.6, "np_cagr3": -3.2, "rev_yoy": 34.5, "np_yoy": -93.0, "np_vol": 71.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 65.7, "fwd_pe2": 42.1, "fwd_g1": 249.0, "fwd_g2": 56.0, "peg": 1.17, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["新能源功率变换产品", 40.0], ["智能电网电源产品", 6.0], ["定制类电源及检测业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 58.8, "ret_prev2_year": -28.3, "ret_ytd": 32.8, "ret_pivot": 159.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.2, "ret_60": 14.5, "ret_120": 16.7, "ret_250": 13.4, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 72.2, "pos_52w": 78.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 26, "bondness": 29}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 229.5 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 65.7 倍,次年 42.1 倍,PEG 1.17。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.8%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 4.96 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 229.5 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 13%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / 14% / 17%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电源设备Ⅱ」33 家中位:PE 69.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 25.3% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 34%。", "通合科技:PE 比行业中位高 160.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}