{"F": {"ts_code": "300489.SZ", "name": "光智科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150701", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 214.33, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 38.3384, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2982569.1274, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.2, 26.4, 20.3, 18.5, 27.6, 25.9], "rev_series": [4.2, 7.2, 9.4, 10.1, 14.5, 20.8], "np_series": [0.2, 0.0, -1.1, -2.4, 0.1, -0.3], "roe_series": [6.5, 1.1, -32.7, -132.8, 3.6, -5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.5, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 25.9, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": -0.8, "roe_median": -5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.7, "fix_assets": 23.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 38.34, "capex_dep": 1.9, "interest_debt": 16.8, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 76.3, "debt_mv": 5.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 30.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 17.0, "np_yoy": -138.4, "np_vol": 1083.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["红外光学产品", 31.0], ["红外光学与激光材料", 31.0], ["铝合金材料及零部件", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.1, "ret_prev2_year": 170.2, "ret_ytd": 321.9, "ret_pivot": 955.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.7, "ret_60": 21.8, "ret_120": 392.9, "ret_250": 355.9, "mdd_250": -59.7, "vol_250": 87.6, "pos_52w": 68.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 78, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 76%,有息负债 17 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 1.90 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 356%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 88%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / 22% / 393%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "光智科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.3个百分点。"]}}