{"F": {"ts_code": "300488.SZ", "name": "恒锋工具", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150701", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.22, "pe_ttm": 29.7509, "pb": 2.6972, "dv_ttm": 0.6306, "total_mv": 596991.3376, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.6, 49.6, 47.9, 46.1, 44.8, 44.7], "rev_series": [3.9, 5.1, 5.3, 5.6, 6.1, 7.1], "np_series": [0.8, 1.5, 1.1, 1.4, 1.3, 1.7], "roe_series": [7.9, 13.6, 9.0, 10.2, 9.1, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.6, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 46.1, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 23.8, "roe_median": 10.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.4, "fix_assets": 9.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 2.7, "capex_dep": 0.79, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 9.6, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 24.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.3, "np_cagr3": 14.9, "rev_yoy": 13.6, "np_yoy": 41.3, "np_vol": 38.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["精密复杂刃量具", 53.0], ["精密高效刀具", 19.0], ["高端生产性服务业", 13.0], ["高端生产性服务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.3, "ret_prev2_year": 14.2, "ret_ytd": -3.8, "ret_pivot": 81.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.9, "ret_60": -18.5, "ret_120": 2.3, "ret_250": -18.0, "mdd_250": -43.6, "vol_250": 57.4, "pos_52w": 65.3}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 64, "hard": 60, "bondness": 22}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 9 亿,占总资产 37%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 46.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.7%,股息率 0.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 83%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 37%)和定价权(毛利率 46.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.79 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.8 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -18% / 2%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "恒锋工具:PE 比行业中位低 20.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.6个百分点。"]}}