{"F": {"ts_code": "300486.SZ", "name": "东杰智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.41, "pe_ttm": 340.5404, "pb": 5.1599, "dv_ttm": 0.0706, "total_mv": 878431.1249, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.3, 24.5, 24.1, 12.3, 4.6, 24.8], "rev_series": [10.3, 13.0, 11.4, 8.7, 8.1, 10.1], "np_series": [1.0, 0.7, 0.5, -2.4, -2.6, 0.2], "roe_series": [7.2, 4.7, 2.9, -15.9, -20.3, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.5, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 24.1, "gm_std": 8.2, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.7, "fix_assets": 7.0, "goodwill_ratio": 5.2, "pb_calc": 5.16, "capex_dep": 0.27, "interest_debt": 3.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 44.7, "debt_mv": 4.3, "payout": 26.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -3.9, "np_cagr3": -24.9, "rev_yoy": 25.8, "np_yoy": 109.7, "np_vol": 261.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["智能物流仓储系统", 40.0], ["智能生产线", 5.0], ["智能生产系统", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 187.1, "ret_prev2_year": -1.0, "ret_ytd": -6.1, "ret_pivot": 275.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.9, "ret_60": -23.9, "ret_120": -24.1, "ret_250": -20.0, "mdd_250": -47.2, "vol_250": 68.5, "pos_52w": 61.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 36, "bondness": 39}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 341 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 45%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.1%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 0.27 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 340.5 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -24% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "东杰智能:PE 比行业中位高 263.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.9个百分点。"]}}