{"F": {"ts_code": "300485.SZ", "name": "赛升药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "其他生物制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.64, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2956, "dv_ttm": 0.3472, "total_mv": 416159.7696, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [83.8, 82.7, 76.6, 70.4, 66.3, 65.1], "rev_series": [10.9, 10.5, 7.3, 4.8, 4.2, 4.0], "np_series": [1.5, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, -0.7, 0.1], "roe_series": [5.7, 13.3, 6.2, 3.0, -2.0, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.9, "np_ttm": -1.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 70.4, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -7.2, "npm_median": 20.2, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.2, "fix_assets": 4.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 1.3, "capex_dep": 2.01, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 3.9, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 54.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -18.0, "np_cagr3": -58.6, "rev_yoy": -8.2, "np_yoy": -400.7, "np_vol": 120.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["心脑血管用药", 44.0], ["免疫系统用药", 29.0], ["神经系统用药", 23.0], ["其他药品、其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 51.1, "ret_prev2_year": -33.8, "ret_ytd": -18.1, "ret_pivot": 38.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.3, "ret_60": 3.1, "ret_120": -20.5, "ret_250": -40.4, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 48.1, "pos_52w": 61.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 71, "hard": 21, "bondness": 43}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 4%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 70.4%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 70.4%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 2.01 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 3% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "赛升药业:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.9个百分点。"]}}