{"F": {"ts_code": "300483.SZ", "name": "首华燃气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.58, "pe_ttm": 28.3328, "pb": 2.5305, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 985105.4966, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.3, 25.6, 20.0, 12.6, 4.6, 17.1], "rev_series": [15.3, 18.2, 20.5, 13.5, 15.5, 28.1], "np_series": [1.1, 0.6, 0.4, -2.5, -7.1, 1.7], "roe_series": [4.5, 2.3, 1.4, -8.7, -30.4, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.2, "np_ttm": 3.5, "ocf_ttm": 17.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 17.3, "gm_median": 17.1, "gm_std": 7.1, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": -16.2, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.0, "fix_assets": 21.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.8, "pb_calc": 2.53, "capex_dep": 1.64, "interest_debt": 7.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 40.6, "debt_mv": 7.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 11.2, "np_cagr3": 60.4, "rev_yoy": 30.5, "np_yoy": 2131.5, "np_vol": 282.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 17.3, "fwd_pe2": 12.6, "fwd_g1": 64.0, "fwd_g2": 37.0, "peg": 0.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["天然气业务", 50.0], ["天然气", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.1, "ret_prev2_year": -17.1, "ret_ytd": 80.4, "ret_pivot": 276.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.8, "ret_60": 37.3, "ret_120": 18.8, "ret_250": 105.5, "mdd_250": -31.2, "vol_250": 71.2, "pos_52w": 99.9}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 33, "hard": 40, "bondness": 10}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 2132%,PE TTM 28.3 倍 但前瞻 PE 17.3 倍,PEG 0.47。", "自由现金流 3.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 37%(10 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 17.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.64 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.3 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 106%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 100%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 37% / 19%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "首华燃气:PE 比行业中位高 6.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 21.6个百分点。"]}}