{"F": {"ts_code": "300482.SZ", "name": "万孚生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "体外诊断", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.74, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.4678, "dv_ttm": 1.31, "total_mv": 783688.2894, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [69.0, 58.5, 51.8, 62.6, 64.1, 57.0], "rev_series": [28.1, 33.6, 56.8, 27.6, 30.6, 20.9], "np_series": [6.3, 6.3, 12.0, 4.9, 5.6, -0.6], "roe_series": [25.0, 20.5, 31.1, 11.0, 11.2, -1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.8, "np_ttm": -1.3, "ocf_ttm": 9.4, "fcf_ttm": 6.8, "fcf_yield": 8.7, "ocf_yield": 12.0, "gm_median": 58.5, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -17.2, "npm_median": 18.4, "roe_median": 11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.4, "fix_assets": 13.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 1.44, "capex_dep": 1.18, "interest_debt": 6.1, "debt_ebitda": 5.2, "debt_ratio": 18.3, "debt_mv": 7.8, "payout": 34.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -28.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -16.6, "np_yoy": -35.2, "np_vol": 68.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 20.0, "fwd_pe2": 17.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.11, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["慢性疾病检测", 41.0], ["传染病检测", 21.0], ["毒品(药物滥用)检测", 11.0], ["毒品(滥用药物)检测", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.4, "ret_prev2_year": -25.2, "ret_ytd": -14.3, "ret_pivot": -10.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.5, "ret_60": -11.7, "ret_120": -12.2, "ret_250": -26.8, "mdd_250": -38.1, "vol_250": 43.5, "pos_52w": 66.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 66, "hard": 33, "bondness": 55}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 18%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 12.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 58.5%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.7%(经营现金流/市值 12.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 1.18 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -12% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "万孚生物:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点。"]}}