{"F": {"ts_code": "300480.SZ", "name": "光力科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150702", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.07, "pe_ttm": 116.4115, "pb": 5.7943, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1039214.8382, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.6, 53.4, 53.3, 53.6, 57.3, 54.9], "rev_series": [3.1, 5.3, 6.1, 6.6, 5.7, 6.7], "np_series": [0.6, 1.2, 0.7, 0.7, -1.1, 0.4], "roe_series": [7.9, 11.2, 4.8, 4.9, -8.2, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.3, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 53.6, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -9.4, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.4, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 7.7, "pb_calc": 5.79, "capex_dep": 1.14, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 16.4, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 72.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 2.9, "np_cagr3": -14.9, "rev_yoy": 57.2, "np_yoy": 194.6, "np_vol": 140.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 96.8, "fwd_pe2": 58.5, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 66.0, "peg": 1.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["半导体封测装备类产品", 77.0], ["安全生产监控类产品", 21.0], ["其他业务", 2.0], ["合计特别调整", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.5, "ret_prev2_year": -39.3, "ret_ytd": 68.0, "ret_pivot": 156.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -19.9, "ret_60": -18.7, "ret_120": -8.2, "ret_250": 51.1, "mdd_250": -46.3, "vol_250": 72.2, "pos_52w": 62.6}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 64, "hard": 26, "bondness": 44}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 116.4 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 96.8 倍,次年 58.5 倍,PEG 1.47。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 53.6%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 53.6%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 1.14 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 116.4 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 51%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -20% / -19% / -8%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "光力科技:PE 比行业中位高 74.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 27.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点。"]}}