{"F": {"ts_code": "300479.SZ", "name": "神思电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.25, "pe_ttm": 67.5374, "pb": 5.6474, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 300487.3725, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.2, 30.4, 33.2, 35.9, 27.9, 29.4], "rev_series": [3.8, 3.7, 3.8, 4.1, 9.1, 9.0], "np_series": [0.1, -1.6, -1.2, -0.7, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [1.1, -23.8, -16.7, -11.9, 3.0, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.2, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 5.3, "gm_median": 30.4, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": -17.9, "roe_median": -11.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.9, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.65, "capex_dep": 1.83, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 60.9, "debt_mv": 5.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 33.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 12.3, "np_yoy": 47.1, "np_vol": 1014.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["AI+智慧城市产品", 41.0], ["AI+智慧城市业务", 41.0], ["智慧医疗产品", 4.0], ["智慧医疗", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.1, "ret_prev2_year": -7.5, "ret_ytd": -20.2, "ret_pivot": 2.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.2, "ret_60": 9.7, "ret_120": -25.2, "ret_250": -33.7, "mdd_250": -46.7, "vol_250": 36.7, "pos_52w": 65.9}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 52, "hard": 13, "bondness": 7}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 68 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 61%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.4%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.4%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.83 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.5 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 10% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "神思电子:PE 比行业中位高 15.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点。"]}}