{"F": {"ts_code": "300478.SZ", "name": "杭州高新", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.75, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 69.5869, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 376852.175, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.6, 9.2, 7.5, 6.0, 4.2, 2.7], "rev_series": [4.1, 3.9, 3.7, 3.9, 3.8, 3.9], "np_series": [-1.9, 0.1, -0.2, 0.2, -0.2, -0.3], "roe_series": [-117.4, 19.8, -28.6, 29.4, -30.4, -50.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.9, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 6.0, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": 1.9, "npm_median": -5.9, "roe_median": -28.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.5, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 69.59, "capex_dep": 0.04, "interest_debt": 2.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 80.9, "debt_mv": 6.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 2.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.4, "np_yoy": -87.3, "np_vol": 175.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["特种聚乙烯及交联聚乙烯电缆料", 32.0], ["通用聚氯乙烯电缆料", 9.0], ["无卤低烟阻燃电缆料", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 258.5, "ret_prev2_year": -28.7, "ret_ytd": -7.9, "ret_pivot": 317.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.0, "ret_60": -23.0, "ret_120": 16.4, "ret_250": 56.7, "mdd_250": -50.5, "vol_250": 61.0, "pos_52w": 66.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 34, "hard": 55, "bondness": 21}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.9 个百分点;资产负债率 81%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.0%,稳定度 62%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.0%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.04 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 57%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -23% / 16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "杭州高新:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点。"]}}