{"F": {"ts_code": "300477.SZ", "name": "ST合纵", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.61, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1147.7106, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 279796.8807, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.8, 21.3, 23.7, 10.9, 7.3, -2.0], "rev_series": [13.0, 24.3, 29.6, 29.5, 26.5, 16.6], "np_series": [-7.8, 1.1, 0.1, -6.4, -6.3, -8.9], "roe_series": [-47.8, 5.9, 0.3, -30.6, -42.7, -144.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.2, "np_ttm": -9.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 10.9, "gm_std": 9.4, "gm_stab": 0.14, "gm_chg_2022": 18.8, "npm_median": -28.4, "roe_median": -30.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.4, "fix_assets": 18.5, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 1147.71, "capex_dep": 0.0, "interest_debt": 21.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 125.3, "debt_mv": 76.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -17.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.1, "np_yoy": -51.3, "np_vol": 3616.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["锂离子电池材料产品", 30.0], ["输配电设备产品", 10.0], ["输配电设备", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.7, "ret_prev2_year": -24.3, "ret_ytd": -0.4, "ret_pivot": 7.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.5, "ret_60": 8.3, "ret_120": -9.1, "ret_250": 20.3, "mdd_250": -49.6, "vol_250": 70.2, "pos_52w": 63.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 22, "hard": 73, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 45%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 18.8 个百分点;资产负债率 125%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%,稳定度 14%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%,稳定度 14%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 18.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 8% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "ST合纵:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.6个百分点。"]}}