{"F": {"ts_code": "300476.SZ", "name": "胜宏科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150611", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 219.5, "pe_ttm": 42.9241, "pb": 5.6905, "dv_ttm": 0.9086, "total_mv": 21572126.36, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.7, 20.4, 18.1, 20.7, 22.7, 35.2], "rev_series": [56.0, 74.3, 78.9, 79.3, 107.3, 192.9], "np_series": [5.2, 6.7, 7.9, 6.7, 11.5, 43.1], "roe_series": [14.7, 13.4, 12.0, 9.2, 13.9, 33.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 218.9, "np_ttm": 50.3, "ocf_ttm": 63.2, "fcf_ttm": -52.1, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": 2.9, "gm_median": 20.7, "gm_std": 6.1, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -5.5, "npm_median": 10.0, "roe_median": 13.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.1, "fix_assets": 170.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 5.69, "capex_dep": 11.57, "interest_debt": 103.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 39.9, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": 24.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 34.7, "np_cagr3": 76.0, "rev_yoy": 28.8, "np_yoy": 33.3, "np_vol": 102.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 23.5, "fwd_pe2": 13.6, "fwd_g1": 82.0, "fwd_g2": 73.0, "peg": 0.32, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 617.6, "ret_prev2_year": 149.3, "ret_ytd": -23.1, "ret_pivot": 783.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -21.7, "ret_60": -32.6, "ret_120": -20.5, "ret_250": -7.7, "mdd_250": -54.1, "vol_250": 78.3, "pos_52w": 55.9}, "S": {"duration": 66, "pricing": 39, "hard": 43, "bondness": 18}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 42.9 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 11.57 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.9 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -22% / -33% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "胜宏科技:PE 比行业中位低 22.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点。"]}}