{"F": {"ts_code": "300471.SZ", "name": "厚普股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150611", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.91, "pe_ttm": 42.0742, "pb": 2.8217, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 465927.2717, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.0, 25.6, 20.6, 21.5, 24.5, 29.4], "rev_series": [4.8, 8.7, 7.1, 9.4, 6.3, 10.8], "np_series": [-1.7, 0.1, -1.4, -0.7, -0.8, 0.1], "roe_series": [-14.8, 1.0, -12.7, -6.1, -7.0, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.1, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 24.5, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": -6.0, "roe_median": -6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.6, "fix_assets": 8.5, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 2.82, "capex_dep": 0.48, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 36.9, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 14.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 8.4, "np_yoy": 518.5, "np_vol": 563.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["专用设备制造业", 43.0], ["专用设备制造", 43.0], ["工程、设计行业", 4.0], ["工程、设计收入", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.2, "ret_prev2_year": -31.4, "ret_ytd": -21.3, "ret_pivot": 20.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.6, "ret_60": 10.0, "ret_120": -35.5, "ret_250": -15.2, "mdd_250": -48.5, "vol_250": 46.0, "pos_52w": 59.8}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 47, "hard": 51, "bondness": 10}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 42 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 37%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.48 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.1 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 10% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "厚普股份:PE 比行业中位低 0.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.6个百分点。"]}}