{"F": {"ts_code": "300470.SZ", "name": "中密控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.95, "pe_ttm": 17.4646, "pb": 1.9736, "dv_ttm": 3.5783, "total_mv": 581177.766, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.8, 51.8, 51.3, 49.6, 48.3, 45.6], "rev_series": [9.2, 11.3, 12.1, 13.7, 15.7, 17.7], "np_series": [2.1, 2.9, 3.1, 3.5, 3.9, 3.9], "roe_series": [14.7, 15.2, 13.3, 14.0, 15.0, 13.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.3, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_yield": 5.9, "ocf_yield": 7.7, "gm_median": 49.6, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 2.6, "npm_median": 25.3, "roe_median": 14.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.8, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 4.6, "pb_calc": 1.97, "capex_dep": 2.3, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 15.7, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 53.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.3, "np_cagr3": 7.6, "rev_yoy": -4.2, "np_yoy": -28.1, "np_vol": 12.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 14.5, "fwd_pe2": 13.1, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 1.32, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["机械密封", 17.0], ["干气密封及控制系统", 9.0], ["橡塑密封", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.5, "ret_prev2_year": 2.5, "ret_ytd": -24.7, "ret_pivot": -2.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.4, "ret_60": -7.5, "ret_120": -26.1, "ret_250": -27.6, "mdd_250": -30.2, "vol_250": 27.4, "pos_52w": 70.6}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 68, "hard": 27, "bondness": 47}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 53%、股息率 3.6%、营收 3 年复合 13.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.6%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.9%(经营现金流/市值 7.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.6%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 2.30 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.5 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -8% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "中密控股:PE 比行业中位低 33.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 21.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.0个百分点。"]}}