{"F": {"ts_code": "300468.SZ", "name": "四方精创", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150527", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.5, "pe_ttm": 218.8489, "pb": 8.8708, "dv_ttm": 0.2182, "total_mv": 1459285.575, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.7, 42.9, 33.0, 30.2, 33.1, 38.6], "rev_series": [5.7, 6.4, 6.6, 7.3, 7.4, 6.3], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.4, 0.5, 0.7, 0.7], "roe_series": [6.6, 5.7, 3.0, 3.0, 4.1, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 33.1, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -14.7, "npm_median": 9.1, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.6, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.87, "capex_dep": 6.39, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 4.7, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 66.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.7, "np_cagr3": 21.7, "rev_yoy": 14.9, "np_yoy": -17.3, "np_vol": 26.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["软件开发及维护", 46.0], ["系统集成", 3.0], ["顾问咨询及产品授权", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 140.2, "ret_prev2_year": 51.8, "ret_ytd": -29.1, "ret_pivot": 210.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 24.4, "ret_60": 24.4, "ret_120": -23.3, "ret_250": -45.5, "mdd_250": -61.3, "vol_250": 53.5, "pos_52w": 57.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 38, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 218.8 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.1%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 6.39 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 218.8 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 24% / 24% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "四方精创:PE 比行业中位高 136.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.8个百分点。"]}}