{"F": {"ts_code": "300465.SZ", "name": "高伟达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150528", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.37, "pe_ttm": 228.1585, "pb": 7.9239, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 548918.0078, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.1, 17.0, 18.9, 18.5, 20.2, 20.4], "rev_series": [18.9, 22.8, 14.4, 14.0, 11.8, 10.3], "np_series": [-6.7, 1.2, -0.8, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [-71.3, 19.6, -11.4, 4.5, 4.8, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 18.9, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 2.7, "roe_median": 4.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.3, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 3.3, "pb_calc": 7.92, "capex_dep": 1.78, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 47.3, "debt_mv": 4.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -10.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -9.6, "np_yoy": -33.5, "np_vol": 107.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["软件开发及服务", 96.0], ["系统集成设备", 2.0], ["系统集成及服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.6, "ret_prev2_year": 83.8, "ret_ytd": -38.5, "ret_pivot": 61.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -22.5, "ret_120": -25.6, "ret_250": -42.5, "mdd_250": -64.5, "vol_250": 55.6, "pos_52w": 44.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 0, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 228.2 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 0%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 1.78 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 228.2 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -22% / -26%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "高伟达:PE 比行业中位高 145.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 29.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.5个百分点。"]}}