{"F": {"ts_code": "300461.SZ", "name": "田中精机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150519", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.33, "pe_ttm": 273.5793, "pb": 8.5133, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 477814.8771, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.0, 40.4, 20.9, 33.2, 38.6, 29.7], "rev_series": [3.6, 3.4, 1.9, 2.6, 2.3, 3.2], "np_series": [1.0, 0.3, -0.6, 0.1, -1.5, 0.2], "roe_series": [134.5, 16.3, -14.0, 1.5, -25.6, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 33.2, "gm_std": 6.9, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -19.1, "npm_median": -0.5, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.9, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.51, "capex_dep": 0.57, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 31.0, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 18.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 51.2, "np_yoy": 9.4, "np_vol": 665.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["非标机", 24.0], ["非标准机", 24.0], ["特殊机", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.3, "ret_prev2_year": -27.9, "ret_ytd": 59.0, "ret_pivot": 85.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.0, "ret_60": -29.4, "ret_120": -48.8, "ret_250": 33.1, "mdd_250": -63.9, "vol_250": 77.0, "pos_52w": 40.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 24, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 274 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 31%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -19.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 0.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 273.6 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 33%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 77%,现价在 52 周高点的 40%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -29% / -49%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "田中精机:PE 比行业中位高 196.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点。"]}}