{"F": {"ts_code": "300457.SZ", "name": "赢合科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电专用设备", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150514", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.54, "pe_ttm": 22.4926, "pb": 1.9526, "dv_ttm": 0.3907, "total_mv": 1389716.643, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.9, 21.9, 20.3, 29.8, 30.3, 24.4], "rev_series": [23.8, 52.0, 90.2, 97.5, 85.2, 94.5], "np_series": [1.9, 3.1, 4.9, 5.5, 5.0, 5.4], "roe_series": [4.5, 5.8, 8.6, 9.3, 7.9, 8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 112.7, "np_ttm": 6.2, "ocf_ttm": 20.3, "fcf_ttm": 19.2, "fcf_yield": 13.8, "ocf_yield": 14.6, "gm_median": 24.4, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -10.6, "npm_median": 8.3, "roe_median": 8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.7, "fix_assets": 18.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 1.95, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 65.7, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 15.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.5, "np_cagr3": 3.4, "rev_yoy": 42.8, "np_yoy": 29.4, "np_vol": 28.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 18.0, "fwd_pe2": 15.5, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.12, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锂电池专用生产设备", 83.0], ["其他业务", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.6, "ret_prev2_year": 4.8, "ret_ytd": -22.4, "ret_pivot": 56.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.5, "ret_60": -5.4, "ret_120": -13.7, "ret_250": -7.4, "mdd_250": -51.3, "vol_250": 49.3, "pos_52w": 59.7}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 45, "hard": 14, "bondness": 26}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 29%,PE TTM 22.5 倍 但前瞻 PE 18.0 倍,PEG 1.12。", "自由现金流 19.2 亿(正),次年预期增速 16%(2 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.8%(经营现金流/市值 14.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.4%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.5 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -5% / -14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "赢合科技:PE 比行业中位低 13.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.1个百分点。"]}}