{"F": {"ts_code": "300454.SZ", "name": "深信服", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20180516", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 135.08, "pe_ttm": 68.4482, "pb": 5.2639, "dv_ttm": 0.0806, "total_mv": 5829498.972, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [70.0, 65.5, 63.8, 65.1, 61.5, 59.3], "rev_series": [54.6, 68.0, 74.1, 76.6, 75.2, 80.4], "np_series": [8.1, 2.7, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0, 3.9], "roe_series": [14.9, 4.0, 2.6, 2.4, 2.2, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 90.3, "np_ttm": 8.5, "ocf_ttm": 11.0, "fcf_ttm": 9.1, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 63.8, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 2.6, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.8, "fix_assets": 10.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.26, "capex_dep": 1.22, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 30.1, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 11.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.8, "np_cagr3": 26.5, "rev_yoy": 32.8, "np_yoy": 201.6, "np_vol": 55.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 94.4, "fwd_pe2": 73.0, "fwd_g1": -27.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 3.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["云计算及AI基础设施业务", 28.0], ["云计算业务", 28.0], ["网络安全业务", 20.0], ["安全业务", 20.0]], "ret_prev_year": 101.0, "ret_prev2_year": -20.6, "ret_ytd": 17.4, "ret_pivot": 207.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.9, "ret_60": 38.0, "ret_120": 12.6, "ret_250": 10.6, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 67.1, "pos_52w": 74.8}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 69, "hard": 11, "bondness": 22}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 68.4 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(21 篇研报)前瞻 PE 94.4 倍,次年 73.0 倍,PEG 3.26。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 63.8%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 63.8%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 1.22 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 38% / 13%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "深信服:PE 比行业中位低 14.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点。"]}}