{"F": {"ts_code": "300453.SZ", "name": "三鑫医疗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150515", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.17, "pe_ttm": 16.9809, "pb": 3.2061, "dv_ttm": 3.2712, "total_mv": 478751.2114, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.4, 34.4, 33.6, 34.9, 35.3, 36.0], "rev_series": [9.4, 11.6, 13.4, 13.0, 15.0, 16.4], "np_series": [1.2, 1.6, 1.8, 2.1, 2.3, 2.6], "roe_series": [15.9, 18.4, 18.6, 17.8, 17.7, 19.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.2, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 4.1, "ocf_yield": 8.9, "gm_median": 34.9, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 1.2, "npm_median": 16.5, "roe_median": 18.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.8, "fix_assets": 12.0, "goodwill_ratio": 3.2, "pb_calc": 3.21, "capex_dep": 2.31, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 36.4, "debt_mv": 5.1, "payout": 58.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.1, "np_cagr3": 12.8, "rev_yoy": 10.0, "np_yoy": 14.8, "np_vol": 8.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["血液净化类", 29.0], ["血液净化", 29.0], ["给药器具类", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.4, "ret_prev2_year": 1.2, "ret_ytd": 7.6, "ret_pivot": 60.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.0, "ret_60": -0.2, "ret_120": -8.1, "ret_250": -7.8, "mdd_250": -18.8, "vol_250": 31.2, "pos_52w": 88.0}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 60, "hard": 78, "bondness": 55}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 59%、股息率 3.3%、营收 3 年复合 7.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 49%、毛利率 34.9% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.1%(经营现金流/市值 8.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.9%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 2.31 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.0 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -19%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -0% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "三鑫医疗:PE 比行业中位低 21.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 20.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 26.9个百分点。"]}}