{"F": {"ts_code": "300450.SZ", "name": "先导智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电专用设备", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.57, "pe_ttm": 29.7008, "pb": 2.9382, "dv_ttm": 0.9026, "total_mv": 5285516.9598, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.3, 34.1, 37.7, 35.6, 35.0, 33.3], "rev_series": [58.6, 100.4, 139.3, 166.3, 118.6, 144.4], "np_series": [7.7, 15.8, 23.2, 17.7, 2.9, 15.6], "roe_series": [15.5, 21.0, 22.5, 15.4, 2.4, 12.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 160.2, "np_ttm": 17.8, "ocf_ttm": 66.9, "fcf_ttm": 61.9, "fcf_yield": 11.7, "ocf_yield": 12.7, "gm_median": 35.0, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 3.4, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 15.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.1, "fix_assets": 25.3, "goodwill_ratio": 2.2, "pb_calc": 2.94, "capex_dep": 2.8, "interest_debt": 34.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 64.0, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.2, "np_cagr3": -12.3, "rev_yoy": 23.9, "np_yoy": 29.2, "np_vol": 185.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 21.1, "fwd_pe2": 15.9, "fwd_g1": 41.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 0.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["锂电池设备", 26.0], ["锂电池智能装备", 26.0], ["智能物流系统", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 152.5, "ret_prev2_year": -21.0, "ret_ytd": -36.5, "ret_pivot": 146.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.5, "ret_60": -23.9, "ret_120": -38.8, "ret_250": 9.1, "mdd_250": -54.1, "vol_250": 62.5, "pos_52w": 46.7}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 61, "hard": 8, "bondness": 39}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 29%,PE TTM 29.7 倍 但前瞻 PE 21.1 倍,PEG 0.64。", "自由现金流 61.9 亿(正),次年预期增速 33%(15 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.0%),硬资产占比 5%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.7%(经营现金流/市值 12.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.0%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 2.80 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.7 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -24% / -39%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "先导智能:PE 比行业中位低 6.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 22.7个百分点。"]}}