{"F": {"ts_code": "300447.SZ", "name": "全信股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.27, "pe_ttm": 131.8045, "pb": 2.2228, "dv_ttm": 0.4161, "total_mv": 445666.9408, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.4, 46.5, 43.5, 39.7, 32.0, 35.5], "rev_series": [7.1, 9.4, 10.9, 10.4, 9.1, 8.4], "np_series": [1.4, 1.6, 1.9, 1.3, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [11.9, 11.0, 10.5, 6.9, 0.9, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.2, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 39.7, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 12.9, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.2, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.22, "capex_dep": 0.59, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 17.9, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 62.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -8.4, "np_cagr3": -46.1, "rev_yoy": -4.4, "np_yoy": 18.9, "np_vol": 51.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["高性能传输线缆和组件", 36.0], ["光电系统和FC产品", 14.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.2, "ret_prev2_year": -1.8, "ret_ytd": -20.8, "ret_pivot": 35.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.0, "ret_60": -7.6, "ret_120": -28.3, "ret_250": -13.5, "mdd_250": -47.5, "vol_250": 47.4, "pos_52w": 61.6}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 55, "hard": 23, "bondness": 45}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 131.8 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.7%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.7%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.59 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 131.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -8% / -28%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "全信股份:PE 比行业中位高 52.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}