{"F": {"ts_code": "300443.SZ", "name": "金雷股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.62, "pe_ttm": 22.1212, "pb": 0.9311, "dv_ttm": 1.0727, "total_mv": 596090.6252, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.7, 39.2, 30.0, 33.0, 21.3, 27.8], "rev_series": [14.8, 16.5, 18.1, 19.5, 19.7, 24.9], "np_series": [5.2, 5.0, 3.5, 4.1, 1.7, 3.1], "roe_series": [21.6, 16.1, 10.3, 8.5, 2.8, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.6, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 30.0, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -14.7, "npm_median": 19.5, "roe_median": 8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.4, "fix_assets": 28.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.93, "capex_dep": 1.25, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 8.6, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 26.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.2, "np_cagr3": -3.7, "rev_yoy": 8.9, "np_yoy": -24.0, "np_vol": 47.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 11.3, "fwd_pe2": 9.2, "fwd_g1": 96.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.51, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["风电轴类(含锻造和铸造)", 23.0], ["风电主轴", 23.0], ["其他精密轴类", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.6, "ret_prev2_year": -27.2, "ret_ytd": -33.6, "ret_pivot": 29.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.8, "ret_60": -14.5, "ret_120": -43.2, "ret_250": -34.1, "mdd_250": -44.2, "vol_250": 41.8, "pos_52w": 56.1}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 47, "hard": 65, "bondness": 24}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.1 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 30.0%、固定资产占比 40%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 30.0%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 6.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.0%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 1.25 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.1 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -14% / -43%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "金雷股份:PE 比行业中位低 10.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.1个百分点。"]}}