{"F": {"ts_code": "300442.SZ", "name": "润泽科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信服务", "sw3": "通信应用增值服务", "ind": "通信服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150424", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 62.93, "pe_ttm": 19.2265, "pb": 7.126, "dv_ttm": 1.0187, "total_mv": 10327077.306, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.2, 20.9, 53.1, 48.6, 48.9, 46.0], "rev_series": [4.6, 6.9, 27.1, 43.5, 43.6, 56.7], "np_series": [-2.3, -0.1, 12.0, 17.6, 17.9, 50.5], "roe_series": [-36.4, -2.4, 70.2, 30.8, 19.4, 42.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 69.2, "np_ttm": 53.7, "ocf_ttm": 39.9, "fcf_ttm": -73.4, "fcf_yield": -7.1, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 48.6, "gm_std": 11.5, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": 36.9, "npm_median": 41.7, "roe_median": 30.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 70.4, "fix_assets": 337.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 7.13, "capex_dep": 5.46, "interest_debt": 205.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.3, "debt_ratio": 64.9, "debt_mv": 19.9, "payout": 50.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 27.9, "np_cagr3": 61.5, "rev_yoy": 50.1, "np_yoy": 36.4, "np_vol": 60.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 31.4, "fwd_pe2": 24.8, "fwd_g1": -39.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 1.16, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["AIDC业务", 27.0], ["IDC业务", 23.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.7, "ret_prev2_year": 112.7, "ret_ytd": 19.7, "ret_pivot": 191.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.8, "ret_60": -14.7, "ret_120": -24.4, "ret_250": 5.0, "mdd_250": -43.9, "vol_250": 65.4, "pos_52w": 61.0}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 62, "hard": 100, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.2 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 48.6%、固定资产占比 70%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 70%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 48.6%,稳定度 76%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.6%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 36.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 70%,资本开支/折旧 5.46 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.2 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -15% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信服务」38 家中位:PE 82.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 20.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 34%。", "润泽科技:PE 比行业中位低 62.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 28.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 58.3个百分点。"]}}