{"F": {"ts_code": "300441.SZ", "name": "鲍斯股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150423", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.94, "pe_ttm": 25.1805, "pb": 1.7443, "dv_ttm": 0.9366, "total_mv": 447224.5652, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.4, 34.8, 32.5, 34.6, 33.6, 28.8], "rev_series": [19.7, 21.7, 20.5, 24.2, 23.2, 17.2], "np_series": [1.0, 2.7, 1.1, 2.8, 8.3, 1.9], "roe_series": [7.3, 18.5, 7.1, 16.1, 38.1, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.9, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_ttm": -4.4, "fcf_yield": -9.8, "ocf_yield": 6.8, "gm_median": 33.6, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 13.9, "roe_median": 16.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.4, "fix_assets": 17.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 1.74, "capex_dep": 5.69, "interest_debt": 4.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 33.2, "debt_mv": 10.3, "payout": 21.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.8, "np_cagr3": 20.4, "rev_yoy": 9.0, "np_yoy": -13.2, "np_vol": 118.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["压缩机产品及相关业务", 21.0], ["压缩机", 21.0], ["真空泵产品及相关业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.4, "ret_prev2_year": 32.5, "ret_ytd": -7.3, "ret_pivot": 22.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": 17.2, "ret_120": -10.2, "ret_250": -22.1, "mdd_250": -33.4, "vol_250": 30.4, "pos_52w": 78.1}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 55, "hard": 68, "bondness": 37}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 17 亿,占总资产 42%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 33.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -9.8%,股息率 0.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 80%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 42%)和定价权(毛利率 33.6% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.8%(经营现金流/市值 6.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 5.69 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.2 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 17% / -10%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "鲍斯股份:PE 比行业中位低 25.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.6个百分点。"]}}