{"F": {"ts_code": "300440.SZ", "name": "运达科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150423", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.66, "pe_ttm": 141.4535, "pb": 5.2108, "dv_ttm": 0.2345, "total_mv": 868808.2322, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.5, 42.9, 44.9, 35.0, 37.2, 34.9], "rev_series": [6.9, 9.1, 9.1, 11.8, 9.8, 12.0], "np_series": [1.5, 1.0, 0.4, 1.0, 0.5, 0.9], "roe_series": [10.9, 7.0, 3.0, 6.6, 3.1, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.8, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 37.2, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -5.6, "npm_median": 7.3, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.1, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 5.5, "pb_calc": 5.21, "capex_dep": 1.31, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 25.0, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 23.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.5, "np_cagr3": 28.7, "rev_yoy": -39.5, "np_yoy": -155.7, "np_vol": 78.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["智慧培训", 16.0], ["智能运维", 15.0], ["智能牵引供电", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.9, "ret_prev2_year": 7.1, "ret_ytd": 60.3, "ret_pivot": 279.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.5, "ret_60": 2.0, "ret_120": 20.4, "ret_250": 45.0, "mdd_250": -38.6, "vol_250": 53.2, "pos_52w": 89.9}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 54, "hard": 5, "bondness": 20}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 141.5 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 3%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.2%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.2%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 1.31 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 141.5 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 45%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 2% / 20%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "运达科技:PE 比行业中位高 57.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}