{"F": {"ts_code": "300438.SZ", "name": "鹏辉能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150424", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 54.82, "pe_ttm": 24.8434, "pb": 4.3927, "dv_ttm": 0.1094, "total_mv": 2759327.9706, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.5, 16.2, 18.7, 16.5, 12.8, 14.6], "rev_series": [36.4, 56.9, 90.7, 69.3, 79.6, 119.4], "np_series": [0.5, 1.8, 6.3, 0.4, -2.5, 2.1], "roe_series": [2.2, 7.0, 18.7, 0.9, -4.8, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 186.2, "np_ttm": 11.1, "ocf_ttm": 12.5, "fcf_ttm": 7.7, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 16.2, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 1.2, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.6, "fix_assets": 70.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 4.39, "capex_dep": 0.59, "interest_debt": 39.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 74.9, "debt_mv": 14.3, "payout": 117.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 9.6, "np_cagr3": -31.0, "rev_yoy": 155.3, "np_yoy": 1025.4, "np_vol": 354.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 13.8, "fwd_pe2": 9.0, "fwd_g1": 80.0, "fwd_g2": 54.0, "peg": 0.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["锂离子电池", 47.0], ["合计特别调整", 2.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 89.5, "ret_prev2_year": -0.4, "ret_ytd": 3.1, "ret_pivot": 139.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.6, "ret_60": -21.6, "ret_120": -5.0, "ret_250": 96.9, "mdd_250": -40.5, "vol_250": 71.6, "pos_52w": 59.5}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 47, "hard": 44, "bondness": 51}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 1025%,PE TTM 24.8 倍 但前瞻 PE 13.8 倍,PEG 0.26。", "自由现金流 7.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 54%(14 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 0.59 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.8 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 97%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -22% / -5%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "鹏辉能源:PE 比行业中位低 11.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}