{"F": {"ts_code": "300433.SZ", "name": "蓝思科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150318", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.14, "pe_ttm": 53.7363, "pb": 3.5149, "dv_ttm": 1.5606, "total_mv": 18549495.5226, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.4, 20.9, 19.2, 16.6, 15.9, 16.0], "rev_series": [369.4, 452.7, 467.0, 544.9, 699.0, 744.1], "np_series": [49.0, 20.7, 24.5, 30.2, 36.2, 40.2], "roe_series": [15.2, 4.9, 5.6, 6.7, 7.6, 7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 703.2, "np_ttm": 34.5, "ocf_ttm": 91.5, "fcf_ttm": -12.2, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 16.6, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -10.2, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.2, "fix_assets": 441.6, "goodwill_ratio": 3.5, "pb_calc": 3.51, "capex_dep": 1.92, "interest_debt": 113.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 37.5, "debt_mv": 6.1, "payout": 54.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.8, "np_cagr3": 18.0, "rev_yoy": -12.4, "np_yoy": -49.5, "np_vol": 30.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 17, "fwd_pe": 37.8, "fwd_pe2": 27.7, "fwd_g1": 42.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 1.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能手机与电脑类", 68.0], ["智能汽车及座舱类", 10.0], ["新能源汽车及智能座舱类", 10.0], ["智能头显与智能穿戴类", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.3, "ret_prev2_year": 75.3, "ret_ytd": 17.8, "ret_pivot": 147.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.1, "ret_60": -16.8, "ret_120": 13.1, "ret_250": 23.1, "mdd_250": -44.3, "vol_250": 65.9, "pos_52w": 63.5}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 43, "hard": 84, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 52%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 1.92 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 53.7 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 23%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -17% / 13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "蓝思科技:PE 比行业中位高 7.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.4个百分点。"]}}