{"F": {"ts_code": "300432.SZ", "name": "富临精工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150319", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.86, "pe_ttm": 44.2941, "pb": 4.9243, "dv_ttm": 0.7215, "total_mv": 2369727.6372, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.5, 26.9, 19.2, 5.5, 12.4, 11.0], "rev_series": [18.4, 26.6, 73.5, 57.6, 84.7, 134.8], "np_series": [3.3, 4.0, 6.5, -5.4, 4.0, 4.3], "roe_series": [17.2, 17.3, 17.6, -12.3, 9.6, 9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 187.2, "np_ttm": 5.3, "ocf_ttm": 22.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 9.4, "gm_median": 12.4, "gm_std": 7.4, "gm_stab": 0.4, "gm_chg_2022": -16.4, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.4, "fix_assets": 73.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.92, "capex_dep": 4.26, "interest_debt": 27.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 72.9, "debt_mv": 11.6, "payout": 35.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 22.4, "np_cagr3": -12.8, "rev_yoy": 90.1, "np_yoy": 61.6, "np_vol": 115.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 16.0, "fwd_pe2": 7.8, "fwd_g1": 177.0, "fwd_g2": 105.0, "peg": 0.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["锂电池正极材料", 30.0], ["锂电正极材料", 30.0], ["汽车零部件", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 53.5, "ret_prev2_year": 47.6, "ret_ytd": -16.5, "ret_pivot": 201.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.5, "ret_60": -36.9, "ret_120": -21.0, "ret_250": -11.2, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 57.1, "pos_52w": 49.5}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 24, "hard": 61, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%,稳定度 40%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 9.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%,稳定度 40%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 4.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.3 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -37% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "富临精工:PE 比行业中位高 8.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.6个百分点。"]}}